FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Sparta Prague 1–1 LillestromMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sparta Prague or draw at 81%. Bawler had Sparta Prague at 57%, the draw at 24% and Lillestrom at 19%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sparta Prague win
57%
Draw
24%
Result
Lillestrom win
19%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.0
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.