What we expect
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win SK Sturm Graz vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler's model rates this match: Stade Rennais are favoured (49% win probability vs 25% for SK Sturm Graz, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for SK Sturm Graz vs Stade Rennais?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is SK Sturm Graz 1-1 Stade Rennais (12.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.85.
How does Bawler predict SK Sturm Graz vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives SK Sturm Graz 25%, the draw 26% and Stade Rennais 49%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in SK Sturm Graz vs Stade Rennais?
BTTS: Yes (56% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.16 and away expected goals 1.69.
Over or under 2.5 goals in SK Sturm Graz vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.85. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).