FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Angers 1–2 Stade RennaisMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Angers at 28%, draw at 26%, Stade Rennais at 46%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Stade Rennais.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Angers win
28%
Draw
26%
Rennais win
46%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.24 – 1.65
Total 2.89
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Rennais defending a European spot with 5 games left faces a mid-table Angers with nothing to play for, and the xG gap (0.46) supports Over 1.5 Goals at 79% as the model's high-confidence call."