FT · FRANCE: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Stade Rennais 3–2 Le MansMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Stade Rennais at 64%, draw at 20%, Le Mans at 16%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Stade Rennais.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rennais win
64%
Actual ✓
Draw
20%
Mans win
16%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.25 – 1.05
Total 3.30
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 64%
✓ Won