Norwich City beat Sheffield United 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Sheffield United at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Norwich City 28%. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 4. Sheffield United had 11 shots (4 on target) to Norwich City's 18 (8), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 1.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Norwich City beat Sheffield United 3–1. Bawler's model favoured Sheffield United at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Norwich City 28%. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 4. Sheffield United had 11 shots (4 on target) to Norwich City's 18 (8), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 1.5.
Sheffield United 1–3 Norwich City, played on 05 Sept 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Sheffield United 47%, the draw 25% and Norwich City 28%.
Full-time: Possession 46%–54%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–1.5, Shots 11–18, Shots on target 4–8, Shots inside box 9–13, Big chances 1–2, Corners 7–4, Saves 4–3, Fouls 14–13, Offsides 6–3, Yellow cards 2–3.
Yes — both Sheffield United and Norwich City scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 60% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Sheffield United or draw 72%, it finished Norwich City won (28% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 60%, it finished Yes.