FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
Sheffield United 3–2 Bolton WanderersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Sheffield United at 56%, draw at 24%, Bolton Wanderers at 20%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Sheffield United.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
56%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Wanderers win
20%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.91 – 1.08
Total 2.99
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost