FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Blackburn Rovers 1–2 Sheffield UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Blackburn Rovers at 36%, draw at 27%, Sheffield United at 37%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Sheffield United.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rovers win
36%
Draw
27%
United win
37%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.39 – 1.40
Total 2.78
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost