Match prediction·ENGLAND: Championship·Saturday 15 Aug, 16:30 UTC

Sheffield United vs Birmingham City

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
54.4% home29.0% draw16.6% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Sheffield UnitedstepBirmingham City
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Sheffield United average 7.7 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Birmingham average 4.8 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
79%
Under 2.5 goals
50%
Birmingham City or draw
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Sheffield United vs Birmingham — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Sheffield United and Birmingham — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Sheffield United 54% · draw 29% · Birmingham 17%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.