What we expect
In plain English
AEK Athens should get at least a draw here. They have won five of their last six, and the model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Shakhtar Donetsk. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
AEK Athens or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?
Bawler's model rates this match: AEK Athens are favoured (51% win probability vs 24% for Shakhtar Donetsk, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1 AEK Athens (11.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.88.
How does Bawler predict Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Shakhtar Donetsk 24%, the draw 25% and AEK Athens 51%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?
BTTS: Yes (56% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.13 and away expected goals 1.75.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.88. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).