Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelComo on top, with Anastasios Douvikas our likeliest to test the keeper.
Como v AEK Athens prediction
Our model gives Como a 63% chance of winning this Champions League game. A AEK Athens win is 17% and a draw 20%. Our predicted score is Como 2–1 AEK Athens (10%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. We expect 3.4 goals in total: 2.3 for Como and 1.1 for AEK Athens. Both sides are more likely than not to score (60%) and three or more goals is 65%.
In their last six games Como have five wins, no draws and one defeat, while AEK Athens have two wins, no draws and four defeats. Como lost their most recent match and AEK Athens won theirs. We expect Como to have 17.9 shots (4.9 on target) and AEK Athens 9.5 (2.7 on target), and corners at 5.5 to 2.6. That points to Como doing more of the attacking.
Nico Paz (Como) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 3.7 shots if they start. Anastasios Douvikas (Como) leads for shots on target, at 1.1. Jayden Addai of Como is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2025/26. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Como or Draw, Como Over 13.5 Shots and Anastasios Douvikas 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 47% on our numbers, so the fair price is 11/10, or 2.12.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Como · last 6
AEK Athens · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Como to win is 63% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Serie A table →Common questions
Who will win Como vs AEK Athens?
Bawler's model rates this match: Como are favoured (63% win probability vs 17% for AEK Athens, 20% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Como vs AEK Athens?
Bawler's predicted score is Como 2-1 AEK Athens: the most likely score if Como win, which is the likeliest result (63%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.7%. Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict Como vs AEK Athens?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Como 63%, the draw 20% and AEK Athens 17%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Como vs AEK Athens?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 60% chance. That is based on Como expecting 2.27 goals and AEK Athens 1.10.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Como vs AEK Athens?
Bawler's model expects 3.4 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 65%.
When are the Como v AEK Athens line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Como v AEK Athens?
Como or Draw (83%), Como Over 13.5 Shots (79%), Anastasios Douvikas 1+ Shot on Target (63%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 47% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.12). 18+, please gamble responsibly.