FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 AEK AthensMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was AEK Athens or draw at 77%. Bawler had Shakhtar Donetsk at 23%, the draw at 25% and AEK Athens at 52%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Shakhtar Donetsk win
23%
Result
Draw
25%
AEK Athens win
52%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.8
Total 2.9
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
AEK Athens or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.