FT · Europe: Champions League · Wednesday, 04 November 2026
AEK Athens 2–3 Real MadridMatch recap · Wednesday, 04 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickLost
Real Madrid or Draw✓
Lovro Majer 1+ Foul Committed✗
Kylian Mbappé 1+ Shot on Target✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
AEK Athens win
22%
Draw
22%
Real Madrid win
56%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 2.1
Total 3.4
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 3.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.