FT · Europe: Champions League · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Manchester City 5–1 AEK AthensMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 20 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester City to win at 72%. Bawler had Manchester City at 72%, the draw at 17% and AEK Athens at 11%. The match finished 5–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Manchester City win
72%
Result
Draw
17%
AEK Athens win
11%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.6 – 0.9
Total 3.5
Actual
5 – 1
Total 6 (+2.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Manchester City to win
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Manchester City's home win is the model's high-confidence call at 74%, driven by a decisive 1.74 expected-goals advantage and Haaland's 39% share of their attacking output."