Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelFenerbahce on top, and Mason Greenwood getting plenty of shots away.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Fenerbahce prediction
Our model gives Shakhtar Donetsk 26%, the draw 26% and Fenerbahce 48%, so Fenerbahce start as favourites. Our predicted score is Shakhtar Donetsk 0–1 Fenerbahce, the likeliest Fenerbahce win score (10%). We expect 2.8 goals in total: 1.2 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 1.6 for Fenerbahce. Both sides are more likely than not to score (55%) and three or more goals is 53%.
We expect Shakhtar Donetsk to have 10.6 shots (3.6 on target) and Fenerbahce 13.3 (4.2 on target), and corners at 4.8 to 5.3. Of the players, Mason Greenwood (Fenerbahce) tops both our lists, with 2.7 shots and 1.2 on target expected if they start. Romelu Lukaku of Fenerbahce is the most booked player in either squad, once every 3 games in 2026/27.
Shakhtar Donetsk come in with two wins, two draws and two defeats in their last six. Fenerbahce have three wins, one draw and two defeats over the same run. Of their last four meetings on our records, Shakhtar Donetsk and Fenerbahce have one win each, with two draws. The last meeting ended Fenerbahçe 1–0 Shakhtar Donetsk, in Apr 2022. Bawler's pick for this game is Fenerbahce or Draw, Fenerbahce Over 9.5 Shots and Mason Greenwood 2+ Shots. Our model gives all three landing together a 45% chance, which makes the fair price 6/5 (2.21).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Shakhtar Donetsk · last 6
Fenerbahce · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Fenerbahce or draw is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Süper Lig table →Common questions
Who will win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahce?
Bawler's model rates this match: Fenerbahce are favoured (48% win probability vs 26% for Shakhtar Donetsk, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahce?
Bawler's predicted score is Shakhtar Donetsk 0-1 Fenerbahce: the most likely score if Fenerbahce win, which is the likeliest result (48%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.9%. Expected total goals: 2.8.
How does Bawler predict Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahce?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Shakhtar Donetsk 26%, the draw 26% and Fenerbahce 48%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahce?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 55% chance. That is based on Shakhtar Donetsk expecting 1.15 goals and Fenerbahce 1.63.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Fenerbahce?
Bawler's model expects 2.8 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 53%.
When are the Shakhtar Donetsk v Fenerbahce line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Shakhtar Donetsk v Fenerbahce?
Fenerbahce or Draw (74%), Fenerbahce Over 9.5 Shots (79%), Mason Greenwood 2+ Shots (71%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 45% chance, a fair price of 6/5 (2.21). 18+, please gamble responsibly.