What we expect
In plain English
Switzerland are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Switzerland or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Scotland vs Switzerland?
Bawler's model rates this match: Switzerland are favoured (45% win probability vs 29% for Scotland, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Scotland vs Switzerland?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Scotland 1-1 Switzerland (12.1% probability). Expected total goals: 2.89.
How does Bawler predict Scotland vs Switzerland?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Scotland 29%, the draw 26% and Switzerland 45%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Scotland vs Switzerland?
BTTS: Yes (58% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.27 and away expected goals 1.62.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Scotland vs Switzerland?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.89. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).