Scotland 0–3 SwitzerlandMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

0–3

Switzerland win

Switzerland

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Scotland at 23%, draw at 26%, Switzerland at 51%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Switzerland.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Scotland win

23%

Draw

26%

Switzerland win

51%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.04 – 1.65

Total 2.69

Actual

0 – 3

Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Pre-match: 77%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 28%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Switzerland's superior chance creation—0.62 xG ahead with Embolo and Xhaka driving attack—underpins the X2 forecast at 77%, reflecting their 51% win probability at Hampden."

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