FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Switzerland 3–0 North MacedoniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Switzerland
3–0
Switzerland win
North Macedonia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Switzerland to win at 94%. Bawler had Switzerland at 94%, the draw at 5% and North Macedonia at 1%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Switzerland win
94%
Result
Draw
5%
North Macedonia win
1%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
3.5 – 0.2
Total 3.7
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.3
From the match itself

The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Switzerland to win
Pre-match: 94%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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