FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026

North Macedonia 0–3 SwitzerlandMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 26 September 2026

North Macedonia
0–3
Switzerland win
Switzerland
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had North Macedonia at 4%, draw at 12%, Switzerland at 84%. The match ended 0-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Switzerland.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Macedonia win
4%
Draw
12%
Switzerland win
84%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.48 – 2.76
Total 3.24
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (-0.2 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Switzerland's Away Win is the clear forecast, backed by a dominant 2.21 expected-goals advantage and 83% win probability that reflects Xhaka and Embolo's creative threat against North Macedonia's 0.54 xG ceiling."

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