FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Switzerland 2–1 SloveniaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

Switzerland
2–1
Switzerland win
Slovenia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Switzerland to win at 84%. Bawler had Switzerland at 84%, the draw at 13% and Slovenia at 4%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Switzerland win
84%
Result
Draw
13%
Slovenia win
4%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.6 – 0.4
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.4
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Switzerland to win
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Switzerland's home advantage pairs with Granit Xhaka's creative edge and a commanding 2.13 xG gap to make a Home Win the model's 83% call."

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