FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 03 October 2026

North Macedonia 0–2 ScotlandMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 03 October 2026

North Macedonia
0–2
Scotland win
Scotland

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Scotland to win at 74%. Bawler had North Macedonia at 8%, the draw at 18% and Scotland at 74%. The match finished 0–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

North Macedonia win
8%
Draw
18%
Scotland win
74%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.6 – 2.2
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 3.2
From the match itself

The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Scotland to win
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Scotland's Away Win carries 75% forecast probability on a dominant 1.66 xG advantage, with creator Andy Robertson leading a team that should dictate play in Skopje."

More from Bawler