BAWLER
Bawler / Slovenia vs Scotland / Recap
FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Slovenia 0–0 ScotlandMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Slovenia
0–0
Draw
Scotland
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Slovenia at 18%, draw at 25%, Scotland at 57%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Scotland to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Slovenia win
18%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Scotland win
57%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.91 – 1.76
Total 2.67
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.7 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Scotland's creative duo of Robertson and McGinn should exploit a 0.82 expected-goals advantage that makes X2 (draw or away win) an 80% forecast in this Nations League clash."

> More from Bawler