Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich prediction — Bundesliga · Sat 5 Sept · 17:30 UK

Bundesliga · Sat 5 Sept · 17:30 UK
Schalke 04 12Draw 16Bayern Munich 72
The call
72%
Bayern Munich to win
3.8
Goals expected
13d 16hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Schalke 04 or draw28%
Over 1.5 goals89%
Over 2.5 goals73%
BTTS62%
Schalke 04 win to nil4%
Bayern Munich or draw88%
Under 3.5 goals47%
Correct score 1–29%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)-1.7 / match
Head-to-head, last 5SCH 0 · D 0 · BAY 5

Head to head

May 2023Bayern München 6–0 Schalke 04
Nov 2022Schalke 04 0–2 Bayern München
Jan 2021Schalke 04 0–4 Bayern München
Sept 2020Bayern München 8–0 Schalke 04
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Common questions

Who will win Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich?

Bawler's model rates this match: Bayern Munich are favoured (72% win probability vs 12% for Schalke 04, 16% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Schalke 04 1-2 Bayern Munich (8.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.82.

How does Bawler predict Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Schalke 04 12%, the draw 16% and Bayern Munich 72%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich?

BTTS: Yes (62% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.07 and away expected goals 2.75.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.82. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Bundesliga table →
Schalke 04
Before this
30 AugAFC Augsburg16:30
Bayern Munich
Before this
28 AugHVfB Stuttgart19:30
All fixtures & results →Schalke 04 form →Bayern Munich form →