Bawler's model rates this match: Bayern Munich are favoured (72% win probability vs 12% for Schalke 04, 16% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Schalke 04 1-2 Bayern Munich (8.8% probability). Expected total goals: 3.82.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Schalke 04 12%, the draw 16% and Bayern Munich 72%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (62% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.07 and away expected goals 2.75.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.82. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).