Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Igor Matanović and Tidiam Gomis both getting shots away.
SC Freiburg v RB Leipzig prediction
Our model only just leans towards SC Freiburg here: 39% to win, with RB Leipzig on 36% and the draw on 24%. Our predicted score is SC Freiburg 2–1 RB Leipzig, the likeliest SC Freiburg win score (8%). SC Freiburg are expected to score 1.7 goals and RB Leipzig 1.6, 3.3 between them. Both teams scoring is 65% and three or more goals is 64%.
Igor Matanović is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.0 shots and 1.2 on target for SC Freiburg, if they start. For cards, Yuito Suzuki (SC Freiburg) has been booked once every 3 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here. On form, SC Freiburg have four wins, no draws and two defeats from their last six games, and RB Leipzig have four wins, no draws and two defeats.
On shots, our forecast is 16.0 for SC Freiburg and 13.1 for RB Leipzig, with 5.7 and 4.2 on target, and corners at 5.0 to 4.3. Bawler's pick combines Both Teams to Score, Over 24.5 Total Shots, Igor Matanović 1+ Shot and Tidiam Gomis 1+ Shot. We make the chance of all four coming in 51%, a fair price of Evens (1.97).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
SC Freiburg · last 6
RB Leipzig · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
SC Freiburg or draw is 64% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Bawler's model rates this match: SC Freiburg are favoured (39% win probability vs 36% for RB Leipzig, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Bawler's predicted score is SC Freiburg 2-1 RB Leipzig: the most likely score if SC Freiburg win, which is the likeliest result (39%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.4%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives SC Freiburg 39%, the draw 24% and RB Leipzig 36%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 65% chance. That is based on SC Freiburg expecting 1.68 goals and RB Leipzig 1.60.
Over or under 2.5 goals in SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 64%.
When are the SC Freiburg v RB Leipzig line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for SC Freiburg v RB Leipzig?
Both Teams to Score (65%), Over 24.5 Total Shots (77%), Igor Matanović 1+ Shot (92%), Tidiam Gomis 1+ Shot (87%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 51% chance, a fair price of Evens (1.97). 18+, please gamble responsibly.