Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelRB Leipzig on top, with Rômulo our likeliest to test the keeper.
1. FC Union Berlin v RB Leipzig prediction
RB Leipzig are favourites on our numbers: 51% to win, against 25% for 1. FC Union Berlin and 24% for a draw. Our predicted score is 1. FC Union Berlin 1–2 RB Leipzig: the most likely score if RB Leipzig win, at 9%. Our expected goals are 1.3 for 1. FC Union Berlin and 1.9 for RB Leipzig, 3.2 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (61%) and three or more goals is 62%.
Antonio Nusa (RB Leipzig) is the player we expect to shoot most, with 2.3 shots if they start. Rômulo (RB Leipzig) leads for shots on target, at 1.0. Felix Uduokhai of 1. FC Union Berlin is the most booked player in either squad, about once a game in 2026/27. We expect 1. FC Union Berlin to have 13.3 shots (4.5 on target) and RB Leipzig 15.1 (4.3 on target), and corners at 4.2 to 5.1.
On form, 1. FC Union Berlin have one win, three draws and two defeats from their last six games, and RB Leipzig have four wins, no draws and two defeats. For Bawler's pick we have gone with RB Leipzig or Draw, RB Leipzig Over 10.5 Shots and Rômulo 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 42% on our numbers, so the fair price is 11/8, or 2.37.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
1. FC Union Berlin · last 6
RB Leipzig · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
RB Leipzig or draw is 75% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win 1. FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Bawler's model rates this match: RB Leipzig are favoured (51% win probability vs 25% for 1. FC Union Berlin, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for 1. FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Bawler's predicted score is 1. FC Union Berlin 1-2 RB Leipzig: the most likely score if RB Leipzig win, which is the likeliest result (51%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.5%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict 1. FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives 1. FC Union Berlin 25%, the draw 24% and RB Leipzig 51%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 61% chance. That is based on 1. FC Union Berlin expecting 1.28 goals and RB Leipzig 1.90.
Over or under 2.5 goals in 1. FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 62%.
When are the 1. FC Union Berlin v RB Leipzig line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for 1. FC Union Berlin v RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig or Draw (75%), RB Leipzig Over 10.5 Shots (83%), Rômulo 1+ Shot on Target (60%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 42% chance, a fair price of 11/8 (2.37). 18+, please gamble responsibly.