Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
SC Freiburg v FC Twente prediction
Our model gives SC Freiburg 42%, the draw 27% and FC Twente 30%, so SC Freiburg start as favourites. Our predicted score is SC Freiburg 1–0 FC Twente, the likeliest SC Freiburg win score (10%). SC Freiburg are expected to score 1.5 goals and FC Twente 1.2, 2.7 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (54%) and three or more goals is 50%.
On form, SC Freiburg have four wins, no draws and two defeats from their last six games, and FC Twente have four wins, one draw and one defeat. Of the players, Igor Matanović (SC Freiburg) tops both our lists, with 3.0 shots and 1.2 on target expected if they start. Anthony Jung of SC Freiburg is the most booked player in either squad, once every 3 games in 2025/26.
We expect SC Freiburg to have 15.8 shots (4.8 on target) and FC Twente 15.8 (5.6 on target), and corners at 4.6 to 4.6. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Over 26.5 Total Shots, Over 6.5 Total Corners and Over 7.5 Total Shots on Target. The chance all three land is 58% on our numbers, so the fair price is 8/11, or 1.72.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
SC Freiburg · last 6
FC Twente · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
SC Freiburg or draw is 70% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win SC Freiburg vs FC Twente?
Bawler's model rates this match: SC Freiburg are favoured (42% win probability vs 30% for FC Twente, 27% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for SC Freiburg vs FC Twente?
Bawler's predicted score is SC Freiburg 1-0 FC Twente: the most likely score if SC Freiburg win, which is the likeliest result (42%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.9%. Expected total goals: 2.7.
How does Bawler predict SC Freiburg vs FC Twente?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives SC Freiburg 42%, the draw 27% and FC Twente 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs FC Twente?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 54% chance. That is based on SC Freiburg expecting 1.47 goals and FC Twente 1.21.
Over or under 2.5 goals in SC Freiburg vs FC Twente?
Bawler's model expects 2.7 goals in total. Three or more goals is a coin flip: over 2.5 goals is 50%.
When are the SC Freiburg v FC Twente line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for SC Freiburg v FC Twente?
Over 26.5 Total Shots (79%), Over 6.5 Total Corners (78%), Over 7.5 Total Shots on Target (79%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 58% chance, a fair price of 8/11 (1.72). 18+, please gamble responsibly.