Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
SV Elversberg v SC Freiburg prediction
Our model only just leans towards SV Elversberg here: 38% to win, with SC Freiburg on 37% and the draw on 25%. Our predicted score is SV Elversberg 2–1 SC Freiburg, the likeliest SV Elversberg win score (8%). We expect 3.3 goals in total: 1.6 for SV Elversberg and 1.6 for SC Freiburg. Both teams scoring is 65% and three or more goals is 63%.
On shots, our forecast is 13.0 for SV Elversberg and 17.1 for SC Freiburg, with 4.7 and 4.3 on target, and corners at 4.1 to 5.9. So we expect SC Freiburg to do more of the shooting. Igor Matanović is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.2 shots and 1.1 on target for SC Freiburg, if they start. For cards, Felix Keidel (SV Elversberg) has been booked once every 3 games in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
On form, SV Elversberg have two wins, one draw and three defeats from their last six games, and SC Freiburg have three wins, no draws and three defeats. Bawler's pick for this game is Over 25.5 Total Shots, Over 6.5 Total Corners and Over 6.5 Total Shots on Target. Our model gives all three landing together a 59% chance, which makes the fair price 4/6 (1.69).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
SV Elversberg · last 6
SC Freiburg · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
SV Elversberg or draw is 63% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Common questions
Who will win SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg?
Bawler's model rates this match: SV Elversberg are favoured (38% win probability vs 37% for SC Freiburg, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg?
Bawler's predicted score is SV Elversberg 2-1 SC Freiburg: the most likely score if SV Elversberg win, which is the likeliest result (38%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.2%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives SV Elversberg 38%, the draw 25% and SC Freiburg 37%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 65% chance. That is based on SV Elversberg expecting 1.64 goals and SC Freiburg 1.62.
Over or under 2.5 goals in SV Elversberg vs SC Freiburg?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 63%.
When are the SV Elversberg v SC Freiburg line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for SV Elversberg v SC Freiburg?
Over 25.5 Total Shots (77%), Over 6.5 Total Corners (84%), Over 6.5 Total Shots on Target (77%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 59% chance, a fair price of 4/6 (1.69). 18+, please gamble responsibly.