Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelRB Leipzig on top, and Tidiam Gomis getting plenty of shots away.
RB Leipzig v Lens prediction
RB Leipzig go into this Champions League match as strong favourites on our numbers: 60% to win, against 21% for Lens and 20% for a draw. Our predicted score is RB Leipzig 2–1 Lens (9%), though no one exact score is likely on its own. RB Leipzig are expected to score 2.4 goals and Lens 1.4, 3.8 between them. Both teams scoring is 69% and three or more goals is 73%.
They have met once on our records, and it ended Lens 2–1 RB Leipzig, in Aug 2025. On shots, our forecast is 17.1 for RB Leipzig and 13.4 for Lens, with 6.1 and 4.6 on target, and corners at 5.2 to 5.4. So we expect RB Leipzig to do more of the shooting.
Of the players, Tidiam Gomis of RB Leipzig tops our shots forecast at 3.0, if they start. Rômulo (RB Leipzig) leads for shots on target, at 1.1. For cards, Abdallah Sima (Lens) has been booked once every 3 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here. On form, RB Leipzig have four wins, no draws and two defeats from their last six games, and Lens have two wins, no draws and four defeats. Bawler's pick combines RB Leipzig or Draw, RB Leipzig Over 12.5 Shots and Tidiam Gomis 2+ Shots. We make the chance of all three coming in 52%, a fair price of 10/11 (1.93).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
RB Leipzig · last 6
Lens · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
RB Leipzig to win is 60% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Bundesliga table →Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win RB Leipzig vs Lens?
Bawler's model rates this match: RB Leipzig are favoured (60% win probability vs 21% for Lens, 20% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for RB Leipzig vs Lens?
Bawler's predicted score is RB Leipzig 2-1 Lens: the most likely score if RB Leipzig win, which is the likeliest result (60%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.9%. Expected total goals: 3.8.
How does Bawler predict RB Leipzig vs Lens?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives RB Leipzig 60%, the draw 20% and Lens 21%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Lens?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 69% chance. That is based on RB Leipzig expecting 2.42 goals and Lens 1.40.
Over or under 2.5 goals in RB Leipzig vs Lens?
Bawler's model expects 3.8 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 73%.
When are the RB Leipzig v Lens line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for RB Leipzig v Lens?
RB Leipzig or Draw (79%), RB Leipzig Over 12.5 Shots (81%), Tidiam Gomis 2+ Shots (74%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.93). 18+, please gamble responsibly.