Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelFC Twente on top: Wout Weghorst to test the keeper, and Devin Haen kept busy stopping them.
FC Twente v Willem II prediction
FC Twente go into this Eredivisie match as strong favourites on our numbers: 89% to win, against 3% for Willem II and 8% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is FC Twente 3–0 Willem II, at 11%. We expect 4.3 goals in total: 3.6 for FC Twente and 0.7 for Willem II. There is a 48% chance both sides score and three or more goals is 80%.
On form, FC Twente have five wins, no draws and one defeat from their last six games, and Willem II have one win, one draw and four defeats. Of their last five meetings on our records, FC Twente have won three, Willem II none, and two were drawn. The last meeting ended FC Twente 6–2 Willem II, in Jan 2025.
We expect FC Twente to have 30.1 shots (8.5 on target) and Willem II 7.8 (2.6 on target), and corners at 8.7 to 2.3. That points to FC Twente doing more of the attacking. Jaden Slory of Willem II is the most booked player in either squad, once every 5 games in 2026/27. Bawler's pick combines FC Twente or Draw, Devin Haen 1+ Foul Committed and Wout Weghorst 1+ Shot on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 48%, a fair price of 11/10 (2.08).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
FC Twente · last 6
Willem II · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
FC Twente to win is 89% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win FC Twente vs Willem II?
Bawler's model rates this match: FC Twente are favoured (89% win probability vs 3% for Willem II, 8% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for FC Twente vs Willem II?
Bawler's predicted score is FC Twente 3-0 Willem II: the most likely score if FC Twente win, which is the likeliest result (89%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.8%. Expected total goals: 4.3.
How does Bawler predict FC Twente vs Willem II?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives FC Twente 89%, the draw 8% and Willem II 3%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in FC Twente vs Willem II?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 48% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on FC Twente expecting 3.60 goals and Willem II 0.67.
Over or under 2.5 goals in FC Twente vs Willem II?
Bawler's model expects 4.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 80%.
When are the FC Twente v Willem II line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for FC Twente v Willem II?
FC Twente or Draw (97%), Devin Haen 1+ Foul Committed (70%), Wout Weghorst 1+ Shot on Target (64%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 48% chance, a fair price of 11/10 (2.08). 18+, please gamble responsibly.