Rio Ave beat C.D. Nacional 3–2. Rio Ave had 11 shots (7 on target) to C.D. Nacional's 13 (5), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 1.2.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Rio Ave beat C.D. Nacional 3–2. Rio Ave had 11 shots (7 on target) to C.D. Nacional's 13 (5), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 1.2.
Rio Ave 3–2 C.D. Nacional, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Rio Ave 37%, the draw 27% and C.D. Nacional 36%.
Full-time: Possession 56%–44%, Expected goals (xG) 1.7–1.2, Shots 11–13, Shots on target 7–5, Shots inside box 6–9, Big chances 3–4, Corners 8–8, Saves 3–3, Fouls 7–17, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 4–0, Red cards 1–0.
Yes — both Rio Ave and C.D. Nacional scored, finishing 3–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.