Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional prediction — Liga Portugal · Sun 11 Oct · 15:30 UK

Liga Portugal · Sun 11 Oct · 15:30 UK
37Rio Ave win27Draw36C.D. Nacional win
Full time
3–2

How it finished

Rio Ave beat C.D. Nacional 3–2. Rio Ave had 11 shots (7 on target) to C.D. Nacional's 13 (5), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 1.2.

Rio AveFull-time statsC.D. Nacional
56%Possession44%
1.7Expected goals (xG)1.2
11Shots13
7Shots on target5
6Shots inside box9
3Big chances4
8Corners8
3Saves3
7Fouls17
0Offsides3
4Yellow cards0
1Red cards0
We predicted
1–0
Likeliest score if Rio Ave win (9%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (13%)
Expected goals
1.4v1.4
2.8 in total
Both teams score
56%
Leans yes
3+ goals
52%
Leans likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

Rio AveRio AveC.D. NacionalC.D. Nacional
1.4Goals1.4
21.4Shots16.6
3.7On target4.2
3.9Corners4.9
Rio AveRio AveC.D. NacionalC.D. Nacional
0.8Goals0.6
10.3Shots7.6
1.7On target1.9
1.8Corners2.3
Rio AveRio AveC.D. NacionalC.D. Nacional
0.6Goals0.8
11.1Shots9.1
1.9On target2.3
2.1Corners2.6

What we said the chances were

2 or more goals76%
Rio Ave to score75%
C.D. Nacional to score75%
Goal before half-time75%
3 goals or fewer70%

First half — what we expected

Rio Ave
54%
to score before half-time
C.D. Nacional
46%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

Rio AveRio AveC.D. NacionalC.D. Nacional
65%9+ shots36%
45%11+ shots19%
78%1+ shots on target80%
26%3+ shots on target29%
79%1+ corners85%
28%3+ corners39%

League position

C.D. Nacional in their league tableLower half

Head to head

Jan 2026Nacional 4–0 Rio Ave
Aug 2025Rio Ave 1–1 Nacional
May 2025Nacional 3–3 Rio Ave
Dec 2024Rio Ave 2–1 Nacional
Apr 2022Nacional 2–0 Rio Ave
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

Liga Portugal table →
All fixtures & results →Rio Ave form →C.D. Nacional form →

Common questions

Who won Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional?

Rio Ave beat C.D. Nacional 3–2. Rio Ave had 11 shots (7 on target) to C.D. Nacional's 13 (5), with 56% of the ball against 44%. Expected goals finished 1.7 to 1.2.

What was the final score in Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional?

Rio Ave 3–2 C.D. Nacional, played on 11 Oct 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with Rio Ave 37%, the draw 27% and C.D. Nacional 36%.

What were the stats in Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional?

Full-time: Possession 56%–44%, Expected goals (xG) 1.7–1.2, Shots 11–13, Shots on target 7–5, Shots inside box 6–9, Big chances 3–4, Corners 8–8, Saves 3–3, Fouls 7–17, Offsides 0–3, Yellow cards 4–0, Red cards 1–0.

Did both teams score in Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional?

Yes — both Rio Ave and C.D. Nacional scored, finishing 3–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.