FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Rio Ave 3–2 C.D. NacionalMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Rio Ave or draw at 64%. Bawler had Rio Ave at 37%, the draw at 27% and C.D. Nacional at 36%. The match finished 3–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Rio Ave win
37%
Result
Draw
27%
C.D. Nacional win
36%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.