FT · USA: MLS · Saturday, 25 July 2026
Red Bull New York 0–2 Charlotte FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 25 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Red Bull New York at 38%, draw at 28%, Charlotte FC at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Red Bull New York to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
York win
38%
Draw
28%
FC win
35%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.73 – 1.66
Total 3.39
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-1.4 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 82% probability because both sides project nearly identical attacking threat at 1.73 and 1.66 xG respectively, virtually guaranteeing a multi-goal match."