FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 26 July 2026
Philadelphia Union 1–0 Seattle Sounders FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Philadelphia Union at 42%, draw at 30%, Seattle Sounders FC at 28%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Philadelphia Union.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Union win
42%
Actual ✓
Draw
30%
FC win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.65 – 1.34
Total 2.99
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 80% because Philadelphia's 1.65 xG and Seattle's 1.34 create a combined 2.99 expected-goal total that heavily favors multiple tallies."