FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 23 July 2026
Philadelphia Union 3–1 Red Bull New YorkMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 23 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Philadelphia Union at 49%, draw at 26%, Red Bull New York at 25%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Philadelphia Union.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Union win
49%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
York win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.04 – 1.45
Total 3.49
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Outside shot
X2
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 84% because Philadelphia's 2.04 xG vastly outpaces Red Bull's 1.45, setting up a multi-goal affair led by striker Tai Baribo's 26% of team shot creation."