Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 77% because Philadelphia's 1.83 xG and Atlanta's 1.21 xG create a combined 3.04-goal expected output that heavily favors a multi-goal game.
Philadelphia UnionstepAtlanta United FCPhiladelphia Union average 7.2 corners per game at home this season (27 competitive matches). Atlanta Utd average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta Utd — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Philadelphia Union and Atlanta Utd — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Philadelphia Union 49% · draw 28% · Atlanta Utd 23%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Philadelphia Union 3–2 Atlanta United FCModel estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.