Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelAZ Alkmaar on top, with Mexx Meerdink our likeliest to test the keeper.
PEC Zwolle v AZ Alkmaar prediction
AZ Alkmaar are favourites on our numbers: 59% to win, against 19% for PEC Zwolle and 22% for a draw. Our predicted score is PEC Zwolle 1–2 AZ Alkmaar, the likeliest AZ Alkmaar win score (10%). Our expected goals are 1.1 for PEC Zwolle and 2.1 for AZ Alkmaar, 3.2 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (58%) and three or more goals is 61%.
PEC Zwolle come in with two wins, two draws and two defeats in their last six. AZ Alkmaar have two wins, one draw and three defeats over the same run. Of the players, Mexx Meerdink (AZ Alkmaar) tops both our lists, with 3.3 shots and 1.2 on target expected if they start. Nick Fichtinger of PEC Zwolle is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2025/26.
We expect PEC Zwolle to have 10.9 shots (3.8 on target) and AZ Alkmaar 19.3 (6.6 on target), and corners at 3.9 to 6.8. That points to AZ Alkmaar doing more of the attacking. Of their last five meetings on our records, PEC Zwolle have won one, AZ Alkmaar three, and one was drawn. The last meeting ended PEC Zwolle 3–1 AZ Alkmaar, in Jan 2026. For Bawler's pick we have gone with AZ Alkmaar or Draw, AZ Alkmaar Over 14.5 Shots and Mexx Meerdink 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 50% on our numbers, so the fair price is Evens, or 2.00.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
PEC Zwolle · last 6
AZ Alkmaar · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
AZ Alkmaar or draw is 81% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler's model rates this match: AZ Alkmaar are favoured (59% win probability vs 19% for PEC Zwolle, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler's predicted score is PEC Zwolle 1-2 AZ Alkmaar: the most likely score if AZ Alkmaar win, which is the likeliest result (59%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.8%. Expected total goals: 3.2.
How does Bawler predict PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives PEC Zwolle 19%, the draw 22% and AZ Alkmaar 59%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 58% chance. That is based on PEC Zwolle expecting 1.08 goals and AZ Alkmaar 2.07.
Over or under 2.5 goals in PEC Zwolle vs AZ Alkmaar?
Bawler's model expects 3.2 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.
When are the PEC Zwolle v AZ Alkmaar line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for PEC Zwolle v AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar or Draw (81%), AZ Alkmaar Over 14.5 Shots (80%), Mexx Meerdink 1+ Shot on Target (67%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 50% chance, a fair price of Evens (2.00). 18+, please gamble responsibly.