Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelTelstar on top, and Nökkvi Thorisson getting plenty of shots away.
Telstar v PEC Zwolle prediction
Our model gives Telstar 51%, the draw 24% and PEC Zwolle 25%, so Telstar start as favourites. If you want one score, our predicted score is Telstar 2–1 PEC Zwolle, the most likely Telstar win (10%). We expect 3.1 goals in total: 1.9 for Telstar and 1.3 for PEC Zwolle. Both teams scoring is 60% and three or more goals is 60%.
On shots, our forecast is 18.8 for Telstar and 11.8 for PEC Zwolle, with 6.2 and 4.5 on target, and corners at 6.0 to 4.0. So we expect Telstar to do more of the shooting. Nökkvi Thorisson is the player we expect to shoot most: 4.1 shots and 1.3 on target for Telstar, if they start. For cards, Nick Fichtinger (PEC Zwolle) has been booked once every 2 games in 2025/26, more often than anyone else here.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Telstar have won none, PEC Zwolle five. When they last met, it finished PEC Zwolle 4–1 Telstar, in Jan 2026. On form, Telstar have one win, one draw and four defeats from their last six games, and PEC Zwolle have two wins, two draws and two defeats. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Telstar or Draw, Telstar Over 14.5 Shots and Nökkvi Thorisson 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 54% on our numbers, so the fair price is 5/6, or 1.85.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Telstar · last 6
PEC Zwolle · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Telstar or draw is 75% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Eredivisie table →Common questions
Who will win Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?
Bawler's model rates this match: Telstar are favoured (51% win probability vs 25% for PEC Zwolle, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?
Bawler's predicted score is Telstar 2-1 PEC Zwolle: the most likely score if Telstar win, which is the likeliest result (51%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.5%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Telstar 51%, the draw 24% and PEC Zwolle 25%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 60% chance. That is based on Telstar expecting 1.86 goals and PEC Zwolle 1.25.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Telstar vs PEC Zwolle?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 60%.
When are the Telstar v PEC Zwolle line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Telstar v PEC Zwolle?
Telstar or Draw (75%), Telstar Over 14.5 Shots (78%), Nökkvi Thorisson 2+ Shots (85%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 54% chance, a fair price of 5/6 (1.85). 18+, please gamble responsibly.