Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelParis Saint-Germain on top: Ferran Torres to test the keeper, and Ibrahima Baldé kept busy stopping them.
Paris Saint-Germain v Lorient prediction
Paris Saint-Germain go into this Ligue 1 match as strong favourites on our numbers: 74% to win, against 9% for Lorient and 17% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Paris Saint-Germain 2–0 Lorient, at 12%. Our expected goals are 2.5 for Paris Saint-Germain and 0.8 for Lorient, 3.3 in all. Both teams scoring is 50% and three or more goals is 63%.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Paris Saint-Germain and Lorient have one win each, with three draws. When they last met, it finished Paris Saint-Germain 2–2 Lorient, in May 2026. In their last six games Paris Saint-Germain have six wins, no draws and no defeats, while Lorient have three wins, one draw and two defeats. Both won their most recent match.
On shots, our forecast is 20.8 for Paris Saint-Germain and 7.5 for Lorient, with 7.2 and 2.5 on target, and corners at 7.4 to 2.4. So we expect Paris Saint-Germain to do more of the shooting. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Paris Saint-Germain or Draw, Ibrahima Baldé 1+ Foul Committed and Ferran Torres 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 51% on our numbers, so the fair price is Evens, or 1.97.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Paris Saint-Germain · last 6
Lorient · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Paris Saint-Germain to win is 74% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Paris Saint-Germain vs Lorient?
Bawler's model rates this match: Paris Saint-Germain are favoured (74% win probability vs 9% for Lorient, 17% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Paris Saint-Germain vs Lorient?
Bawler's predicted score is Paris Saint-Germain 2-0 Lorient: the most likely score if Paris Saint-Germain win, which is the likeliest result (74%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.7%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict Paris Saint-Germain vs Lorient?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Paris Saint-Germain 74%, the draw 17% and Lorient 9%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint-Germain vs Lorient?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 50% chance. That is based on Paris Saint-Germain expecting 2.48 goals and Lorient 0.79.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Paris Saint-Germain vs Lorient?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 63%.
When are the Paris Saint-Germain v Lorient line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Paris Saint-Germain v Lorient?
Paris Saint-Germain or Draw (91%), Ibrahima Baldé 1+ Foul Committed (71%), Ferran Torres 1+ Shot on Target (72%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 51% chance, a fair price of Evens (1.97). 18+, please gamble responsibly.