FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 07 November 2026
Paris Saint-Germain 1–0 TroyesMatch recap · Saturday, 07 November 2026
How Bawler's pick did
Bawler's pickWon
Paris Saint-Germain or Draw✓
Antoine Mille 1+ Foul Committed✓
Ferran Torres 1+ Shot on Target✓
Logged before kickoff, settled from the final stats. Bawler's pick record →
Pre-match probability vs result
Paris Saint-Germain win
85%
Result
Draw
11%
Troyes win
5%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
3.1 – 0.7
Total 3.8
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.