Bawler's pick
4 legs, built by our modelAn open game: both sides to score, with Ibrahima Baldé and Mousa Tamari both getting shots away.
Lorient v Stade Rennais prediction
Our model makes Lorient favourites for this Ligue 1 game, giving them a 41% chance of winning. Stade Rennais are 34% and the draw is 25%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Lorient 2–1 Stade Rennais, the most likely Lorient win (9%). Lorient are expected to score 1.6 goals and Stade Rennais 1.5, 3.1 between them. Both sides are more likely than not to score (61%) and three or more goals is 59%.
On form, Lorient have two wins, two draws and two defeats from their last six games, and Stade Rennais have two wins, two draws and two defeats. We expect Lorient to have 14.0 shots (4.4 on target) and Stade Rennais 13.3 (4.3 on target), and corners at 3.8 to 5.9.
Adrien Thomasson of Stade Rennais is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. Bawler's pick for this game is Both Teams to Score, Over 22.5 Total Shots, Ibrahima Baldé 1+ Shot and Mousa Tamari 1+ Shot. Our model gives all four landing together a 45% chance, which makes the fair price 6/5 (2.22).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Lorient · last 6
Stade Rennais · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Lorient or draw is 66% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Lorient vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler's model rates this match: Lorient are favoured (41% win probability vs 34% for Stade Rennais, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Lorient vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler's predicted score is Lorient 2-1 Stade Rennais: the most likely score if Lorient win, which is the likeliest result (41%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.7%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Lorient vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Lorient 41%, the draw 25% and Stade Rennais 34%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Stade Rennais?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 61% chance. That is based on Lorient expecting 1.61 goals and Stade Rennais 1.45.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Lorient vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 59%.
When are the Lorient v Stade Rennais line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Lorient v Stade Rennais?
Both Teams to Score (61%), Over 22.5 Total Shots (79%), Ibrahima Baldé 1+ Shot (91%), Mousa Tamari 1+ Shot (81%). Our model gives all 4 landing together a 45% chance, a fair price of 6/5 (2.22). 18+, please gamble responsibly.