Bawler / Panama vs England / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Saturday, 27 June 2026

Panama 0–2 EnglandMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 27 June 2026

Panama
0–2
England win
England
> Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Panama at 11%, draw at 23%, England at 66%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward England.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Panama win
11%
Draw
23%
England win
66%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
0.79 – 2.15
Total 2.94
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.9 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 0.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> Bawler's picks · how they landed
Banker
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Dark Horse
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✓ Won
Bawl Out✓ Cashed@ 3.52x
  • José Fajardo 1+ Shot✓
  • Under 10.5 Corners✓
  • Over 1.5 Goals✓
  • Away Win✓
> What we said pre-match
"Over 2.5 Goals sits at 75% probability because England's 2.13 xG paired with Kane's 22% team creation share and Panama's 0.76 xG output creates a 1.37-goal gap that favors high-scoring play."

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