Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo prediction — Europa League · Wed 16 Sept · 17:45 UK

Europa League · Wed 16 Sept · 17:45 UK
Omonia Nicosia 30Draw 27Celta Vigo 42
The call
70%
Celta Vigo or draw
2.7
Goals expected
12d 07hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Celta Vigo to score77%
Over 1.5 goals74%
Under 3.5 goals72%
Omonia Nicosia to score70%

Player forecasts

How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.

Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.

Celta Vigo
1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target
Ferrán Jutglà
FW · 2.4 shots expected
91%
71%
35%
Pablo Durán
FW · 2.3 shots expected
90%
61%
24%
Iago Aspas
FW · 2.3 shots expected
90%
63%
26%
Borja Iglesias
FW · 2.2 shots expected
89%
68%
31%
Bryan Zaragoza
FW · 2.2 shots expected
89%
63%
26%
Jones El-Abdellaoui
MF · 1.9 shots expected
84%
37%
8%

These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)L L D W L W
Expected goals gap (xG)-0.3 / match
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile
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Common questions

Who will win Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo?

Bawler's model rates this match: Celta Vigo are favoured (42% win probability vs 30% for Omonia Nicosia, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Omonia Nicosia 1-1 Celta Vigo (13.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.65.

How does Bawler predict Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Omonia Nicosia 30%, the draw 27% and Celta Vigo 42%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo?

BTTS: Yes (54% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.20 and away expected goals 1.46.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Omonia Nicosia vs Celta Vigo?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.65. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

LaLiga table →
All fixtures & results →Omonia Nicosia form →Celta Vigo form →