FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
NK Celje 0–3 Omonia NicosiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was NK Celje or draw at 69%. Bawler had NK Celje at 43%, the draw at 27% and Omonia Nicosia at 31%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
NK Celje win
43%
Draw
27%
Omonia Nicosia win
31%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.