FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Celta Vigo 1–2 JuventusMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Juventus or draw at 68%. Bawler had Celta Vigo at 32%, the draw at 27% and Juventus at 41%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Celta Vigo win
32%
Draw
27%
Juventus win
41%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.