FT · Spain: La Liga · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Elche 0–0 Celta VigoMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Celta Vigo or draw at 64%. Bawler had Elche at 36%, the draw at 27% and Celta Vigo at 37%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Elche win
36%
Draw
27%
Result
Celta Vigo win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 2.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.