FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Omonia Nicosia 4–2 Sint-TruidenseMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Omonia Nicosia or draw at 72%. Bawler had Omonia Nicosia at 46%, the draw at 26% and Sint-Truidense at 28%. The match finished 4–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Omonia Nicosia win
46%
Result
Draw
26%
Sint-Truidense win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
4 – 2
Total 6 (+3.1 against our forecast)
The match produced 3.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Omonia Nicosia or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals commands 79% confidence because Omonia's 0.39 xG advantage and 46% win probability suggest attacking intent that should break through Sint-Truidense's modest 1.25 expected output."