Norwich City vs Burnley prediction — Championship · Sat 29 Aug · 15:00 UK

Championship · Sat 29 Aug · 15:00 UK
Norwich City 37Draw 27Burnley 36
The call
77%
Over 1.5 goals
2.8
Goals expected
Full time
Final 4–1

How it finished

Norwich City beat Burnley 4–1. Bawler's model had Norwich City in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Norwich City had 20 shots (6 on target) to Burnley's 16 (4), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 1.0.

Norwich CityFull-time statsBurnley
37%Possession63%
1.9Expected goals (xG)1.0
20Shots16
6Shots on target4
12Shots inside box10
4Big chances1
3Corners5
3Saves2
14Fouls5
3Offsides1
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultNorwich City 37%Norwich City (37% called)
Total goals2.85
Both teams to score57%Yes
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 77%Landed
Second callOver 2.5 Goals 53%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Over 1.5 goals77%
Norwich City to score76%
Burnley to score75%
Under 3.5 goals69%

First half — what we expected

Norwich CityBefore half-timeBurnley
43%Chance to score45%
10.0Expected shots4.2
3.1Expected shots on target1.3
3.8Expected corners1.7
65%Chance of 9+ shots4%
42%Chance of 11+ shots1%
65%Chance of 2+ shots on target37%
39%Chance of 4+ shots on target4%
70%Chance of 3+ corners25%
33%Chance of 5+ corners4%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 68%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.0 / match
Head-to-head, last 5NOR 1 · D 0 · BUR 4
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

Apr 2025Burnley 2–1 Norwich City
Dec 2024Norwich City 1–2 Burnley
Feb 2023Norwich City 0–3 Burnley
Oct 2022Burnley 1–0 Norwich City
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Norwich City vs Burnley?

Norwich City beat Burnley 4–1. Bawler's model had Norwich City in front at 37% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; the match produced 5. Norwich City had 20 shots (6 on target) to Burnley's 16 (4), with 37% of the ball against 63%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 1.0.

What was the final score in Norwich City vs Burnley?

Norwich City 4–1 Burnley, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Norwich City 37%, the draw 27% and Burnley 36%.

What were the stats in Norwich City vs Burnley?

Full-time: Possession 37%–63%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–1.0, Shots 20–16, Shots on target 6–4, Shots inside box 12–10, Big chances 4–1, Corners 3–5, Saves 3–2, Fouls 14–5, Offsides 3–1, Yellow cards 4–3, Red cards 0–1.

Did both teams score in Norwich City vs Burnley?

Yes — both Norwich City and Burnley scored, finishing 4–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 57% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Norwich City vs Burnley right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Norwich City 37%, it finished Norwich City (37% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 57%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 77%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said Over 2.5 Goals 53%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

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