FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Millwall 3–0 Norwich CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Millwall at 47%, draw at 26%, Norwich City at 27%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Millwall.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Millwall win
47%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
City win
27%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.62 – 1.17
Total 2.79
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost