FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Millwall 3–0 Norwich CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Millwall or draw at 73%. Bawler had Millwall at 47%, the draw at 26% and Norwich City at 27%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Millwall win
47%
Result
Draw
26%
Norwich City win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Millwall or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.