FT · England: Championship · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Burnley 2–2 West Ham UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 16 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Burnley at 34%, draw at 28%, West Ham United at 37%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was West Ham United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Burnley win
34%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
United win
37%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.49 – 1.16
Total 2.65
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 65%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Burnley's desperate fight to escape the relegation zone contrasts sharply with West Ham's comfort, yet the hosts generate superior expected goals (1.49 vs 1.16), making the 65% forecast for 1X reflect their desperation-driven edge at home."