FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Sunday, 23 August 2026
West Bromwich Albion 3–1 BurnleyMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was West Bromwich Albion or draw at 66%. Bawler had West Bromwich Albion at 37%, the draw at 28% and Burnley at 34%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
West Bromwich Albion win
37%
Result
Draw
28%
Burnley win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.2
Total 2.5
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.