FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Sunday, 23 August 2026
West Bromwich Albion 3–1 BurnleyMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had West Bromwich Albion at 37%, draw at 28%, Burnley at 34%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward West Bromwich Albion.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Albion win
37%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Burnley win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.30 – 1.24
Total 2.54
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.5 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost