Bawler / New Zealand vs Egypt / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Monday, 22 June 2026

New Zealand 1–3 EgyptMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 22 June 2026

New Zealand
1–3
Egypt win
Egypt
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had New Zealand at 24%, draw at 31%, Egypt at 45%. The match ended 1-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Egypt.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Zealand win
24%
Draw
31%
Egypt win
45%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.09 – 1.55
Total 2.64
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)

Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 64%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 22%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 74% because Egypt's 1.55 xG and Mohamed Salah's creative dominance (32% of team output) will stretch New Zealand's thin 1.09 xG defense into multiple scoring chances."

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